Gulliver's Travails: This is huge!!! Bigger than north woods document!!!
future study conducted 1995-1996 for the Air Force Chief of staff
documents here
Gulliver's Travails is a world of rampant nationalism, state- and nonstate-sponsored terrorism, and fluid coalitions.1 Most US citizens consider their nation to be the world's policeman . . . fireman, physician, social worker, financier, mailman, and bartender. It is much like being a traffic cop on an incendiary New York City Friday afternoon when the traffic lights stop working. Just when everyone foresees the illusory weekend escape from the rat race, they instead must compete to relax. A zero-sum calculus pervades much of the globe, and random firefights occur in a world where everyone is armed and many are envious.
This is an age in which agrarian and industrial civilizations often dominate the stage with unruly behavior, threatening to topple more "advanced" states when "primitive" conflicts create problems that spill across borders. Though the reasons for the conflicts may appear primitive, the weapons used are often modern.2 Furthermore, newly anointed leaders are clever enough to realize refugees pose a threat to the stability of their regime, be it an autocracy, a people's republic, or an economic enclave. Those in power assume, usually correctly, that the displaced will seek to return to their homes, or at the least to gain revenge.3 Consequently, to ensure their new state's security, governments seek some means for controlling the passions of those who might oppose them. In some cases, internal repression and external terrorism are the mechanisms chosen.4
Traditionally the United States could ignore some of these activities, but as the world has gotten smaller, the problems of terrorism are no longer confined overseas. Small states or groups may seek to either spur or deter US action in pursuit of their own agendas. The problem is there are too many actors, all clamoring for attention, frequently in direct opposition to one another. Addressing these claimants' issues is vital to the US because groups that are neither controlled nor appeased may export terrorism to America.
Nationalism lurks everywhere, usually asserting itself along ethnic, economic, religious, cultural, or racial schisms.5 In many areas, a man who is not one's brother is one's enemy. States which secede from within existing borders are themselves subject to civil wars, and states propagate as ever more groups seek self-determination. Territory is important in this world, because the emergent groups need land to form states. Because land matters, border disputes continue long after these tenuous states initially form.6 The violent, nationalistic conflicts concomitantly displace millions of people. Refugees stream across borders seeking food, shelter, and security, but their presence often sparks reactionary nationalistic movements in the "invaded" country.7
America, though without peer, finds its forces dispersed around the world, trying to answer all the alarms. As shown in figure 3-1, the American World View is Global; the United States is heavily involved worldwide in order to hold threats at arms length. The World Power Grid is characterized as Dispersed. New actors are constantly appearing, alliances rapidly shift, and small actors can produce disproportionate effects. DTeK is Constrained because technological changes are occurring at an evolutionary rate, and not everyone benefits equally. The US government has not emphasized the funding of basic research and development (R&D), relying instead on commercial developments. This R&D strategy is repeated around the world, so the United States has maintained a military edge in many dual-use critical technologies, particularly those related to operations in space.
Figure 3-1. Strategic Planning Space for Gulliver's Travails
Plausible History
Gulliver's Travails is a world experiencing an explosion in the number of territories claiming statehood, as depicted in figure 3-2. The late twentieth century dismantling of the Soviet Union inaugurated a trend, as various groups sought to assert their national identity. States such as China and many African states continued to break apart, sometimes generating "micronations" that lacked the population or resources to defend their borders.8 In 2006, China fragmented along economic cleavages that had developed as industrialization and commercialization created distinctly different regions of financial development.9 Though Taiwan, Shanghai, and the other advanced Chinese states continue to espouse a "one China" philosophy, the current reality is that these regions cooperate where possible and compete when necessary.10
Figure 3-2. Plausible History for Gulliver's Travails
The constant formation of new states generated two primary threats. The first threat is state- and nonstate-sponsored terrorism. States use terror to control internal dissent and to influence nations with whom they cannot otherwise directly compete. Nonstate actors use terrorism to attack the legitimacy of governments they disagree with and to discourage other groups from supporting policies unfavorable to the terrorists.
The first large-scale terrorist incident on American soil was the biological attack launched at the 2002 Olympics in Utah, resulting in over a million American casualties, including a quarter-million dead.11 Though a link to the Dugway Proving Ground was originally suspected, foreign terrorists were later proven responsible.12 This incident sparked civil demands that authorities use all appropriate national instruments to deter and prevent terrorist acts within US borders. One step, taken in 2019, was to dedicate the training of specific National Guard units to antiterrorism efforts inside US borders. 13 Threats of terrorism, at home and abroad, continue to drive national security initiatives.
The second major threat is ethnic- and nationalistic-inspired border disputes such as the Turko-Kurdish problem which flared up in 2004 (see map at fig. 3-3). 14 Power continued to disperse in the world when NATO proved ineffective in resolving the Turko-Kurdish conflict. NATO had sufficient military resources, but the alliance was unable to muster the collective will to contain the conflict before it spilled across borders into Iraq, Iran, Syria, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, putting over 340 million people at risk.15
As the conflict continued without foreign intervention, chemical and biological weapons were used on the battlefield. Undeterred by world opinion, the use of these weapons threatened to become standard practice by 2011. At this point, a loosely linked United States-led coalition, including Russia, stepped in to announce that further use of these weapons would be met by severe reprisals. Though the conflict continued, no further chemical or biological incidents occurred, as the combatants proved reluctant to test the resolve of the coalition. The coalition was able to concentrate on containment until the war-weary states signed an armistice in 2012. However, a critical threshold had been passed, and in 2025 the actual or threatened use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is standard in many conflicts. Only the nuclear threshold has not been crossed, due to the relatively slow spread of nuclear weapons technology and the apparent unwillingness of combatants to use nuclear devices. Some terrorist organizations have claimed to possess primitive nuclear devices, though they have not detonated one.
The latest round of African wars began in 2022, continuing to redraw the map lines created during the colonial era.16 As a consequence of these and similar conflicts, the resources of noncombatant nations around the world, particularly those states along the Mediterranean, are strained by mass migrations of refugees.17 Along with the problem of providing food and shelter for these refugees, the refugee camp conditions often spur the spread of diseases.18
The end result of all these economic restructurings, civil wars, wars of national liberation, wars of ethnic identification, and scenes of general xenophobic disorder is an unstable world, with threats from increasing numbers of actors in all quarters. Reflecting the growth in the number of actors, UN membership stands at 297.19
The Nature of Actors
The fates of three groups dominate the stage in Gulliver's Travails: terrorists, both state and nonstate; international organizations; and the United States. Though the European states and Japan remain key economic players in the world, domestic interests and constrained DTeK have hindered their economic growth. Both areas look to the United States for leadership in constraining terrorists, addressing worldwide refugee flows, and ensuring equitable access to resources. Both Russia and China have fractured along internal schisms and are not currently major global players.
Terrorism increases worldwide as relatively weak states seek to assert sovereignty, particularly with respect to the policies of the most visible world actor, the United States. Meanwhile, nonstate terrorists also commit heinous acts in the name of establishing their legitimacy, or attacking the legitimacy of a government whose policies they disagree with. Many suspect some of these international groups exist solely as extortion rings, accepting blackmail or ransom payments in return for releasing hostages to fortune.
International organizations have experienced mixed successes and failures in the unstable international environment. UN conflict resolution mechanisms and resources are saturated by the influx of new members, many of whom squabble with each other. The UN's credibility declines further when it cannot constrain state-sponsored or antistate terrorism.20
Temporary coalitions have become the order of the day as states operate from crisis to crisis. Some international organizations, such as the Red Cross, remain on the scene, often providing vital resources to coalitions combating famine and disease. These groups, however, are loath to cooperate with the United States on humanitarian missions lest they be accused of complicity with the Americans. The risk of becoming terrorist targets outweighs the value of access to American logistics.
Anxious to reduce the sources of local, regional, and international turmoil, many nations and states look to the United States for help in restoring stability and combating both state and nonstate terrorists, who have occasionally threatened to use WMD. The continuing terrorist threat guarantees domestic support for the US decision to assume a worldwide leadership role in trying to deal with global problems. Ever-increasing political, economic, and military resources are expended trying to control interstate conflicts, combat terrorism, and conduct other military operations.
The Nature of International Politics
The United States is, in effect, not a superpower because it cannot dictate its will to an increasingly uncooperative world. Relative to any single nation, however, the United States is an economic and military giant. US membership in alliances has been highly sought, particularly after this country successfully brokered an armistice in the Turko-Kurdish Wars. Some coalitions have formed to oppose US interests, but these were usually unstable due to their limited shared aims.
The Nature of US National Security Strategy
The strategic challenge in this world is to defend against WMD-equipped terrorists while maintaining a high operations tempo in other mission areas. Much of the high operations tempo is caused by numerous overseas involvements responding to constant border disputes brought on by rampant nationalism. These border disputes create massive refugee flows and generate taxing humanitarian and peace enforcement operations.
Therefore, the two principal dangers the military must address are regional instability and the transnational danger of terrorism.21 As a consequence, the primary national security objective is promoting stability, thereby supporting American partners and deterring aggressors who might export terrorism to America. To support this objective a strategy evolved for rapidly projecting power and civil-military operations capabilities, in combination or separately, as necessary. Projection is the mechanism of choice because it is dangerous to maintain concentrations of forces overseas, and most states will not accept permanent US military bases. Antigovernment and foreign terrorists have attacked governments that made basing concessions to the US.
The Nature of Humanity
An uneasiness regarding outsiders, akin to xenophobia, is a characteristic trait of neighborhoods in Gulliver's Travails. So is a fear of gathering in large groups, as many remember the terrorist attack at the 2002 Olympics. The threat of terrorist activity causes groups to trust only those they have known for years, preferably decades.
As a paradoxical consequence, American military members are both admired and mistrusted. They are admired because they enhance stability and safety, but they are mistrusted because permanent changes of station and temporary duty assignments prevent military members from forming close links in the communities where they serve. As a result of the general mistrust of strangers, families have become more important in this world.
The Nature of Technology
In the world of Gulliver's Travails, technology has grown at an evolutionary rate, perhaps due in part to the regulatory structure of government programs around the world. Others argue that disruptions in the world body politic have hindered DTeK, as governments concentrate on terrorist and border threats rather than supporting basic R&D. Evolutionary growth is the most important aspect of technology in Gulliver's Travails, but important developments have begun in at least one area, the exploitation of space.
In America, government funding of R&D, particularly basic research, generally lagged as a result of allocating funds to export military power in a quest to sustain internal security. However, America was able to maintain its lead in certain technologies because of the Constrained nature of DTeK, although that lead is eroding.
Elsewhere, other nations recognized that an indigenous computer and information industry was crucial to a state's long-term vitality, though the policies implemented were often counterproductive.22 For instance, states placed high tariffs on computer imports in attempts to protect nascent industries, but this resulted in reduced access to advances in the state of the art. Another regulatory miscue was seen in some locations where information was taxed to provide revenues, unintentionally stifling initiatives to develop the new industries so desperately sought. Attempts to contain terrorism led many nations to establish controls on the export of dual-use technologies, unintentionally acting as an additional brake on technology development. One readily evident consequence of poorly managed policies and economic competition between states was an information superhighway frequently overloaded with information, debilitated by computer viruses, and slowed by competing architectures.
Developments in space did not labor under similar quantities of regulation. The increased importance of transmitting information led the commercial sector to invest heavily in space communications. (In return for releasing bandwidth to the military, commercial firms now are financially compensated and are granted relief from antimonopoly laws to allow participation in government-sponsored consortiums to improve satellite defensive systems.) Some projects, however, required resources greater than venture capitalists were willing to risk. For example, four international space stations were developed under the aegis of the US government and placed in orbit by 2015.23 Groups that cooperated in this space infrastructure project included both traditionally friendly nations, such as the United Kingdom, and multinational corporations seeking competitive opportunities in zero-g technologies. Spin-off technologies from this effort continue to enhance US military capabilities.
The American military edge garnered by investments in space has not gone unnoticed by potential adversaries. Some states have deployed antisatellite systems (ASAT) to counter the force-multiplier effect of satellite coverage, and in response the United States has developed some satellite defensive systems. However, there remains little defense against inexpensive, nuclear-tipped ASATs.24
The Nature of the Environment
The United States has led efforts to coordinate actions to mitigate global warming and environmental degradation.25 Efforts to mitigate environmental damage are an issue the advanced states attempt to address in new states and inside their own borders. A general concern regarding the ecosphere allows the environment in Gulliver's Travails to be characterized as "green."26
Coordinated actions include providing aid to newly industrializing countries, usually in the form of technological know-how. This aid is considered mutually beneficial, providing new states with infrastructure investments and advanced nations with a more stable international political structure. All nations are presumed to benefit from efforts to minimize stress on the environment, particularly the attempt to control the trend in global warming.27
Many advanced countries used taxes to keep the price of fossil fuels artificially high, thereby restraining internal energy consumption. Environmentally friendly government policies created a market for alternate forms of energy including solar, wind, geothermal, oceanic, and biomass.28 Countries with large standing militaries used these forces as testbeds for many alternate energy programs, in addition to curtailing some training activities and closing some training ranges.29 In the United States, the military invested heavily in alternate forms of energy, including solar heat for buildings and hydrogen fuel for aerospace planes. In addition, the military closed energy-inefficient bases and consolidated some geographically proximate facilities.30
The Nature of the Defense Budget
During three decades of economic growth averaging 1.8 percent,31 the budget for the Department of Defense (DOD) sustained a slight decrease in constant year 1995 dollars (see fig. 3-4). To maintain readiness in the face of this decrease, DOD cut support for R&D and modernization programs. As a result, the military industrial base eroded and second- and third-tier contractors disappeared, while major suppliers consolidated horizontally.32 Had it not been for dual-use, off-the-shelf commercial technologies, the US military would already have had to make deeper cuts in readiness, force structure, and modernization programs. These tradeoff decisions were delayed after 2015 when DOD budgets began to increase at a rate approaching 2 percent real growth per year. This funding reflected the desire of the body politic to secure American borders by operating abroad. In 2025, the DOD budget represents just over 2.3 percent of gross domestic product.
Figure 3-4. DOD Budget (Constant FY95 $B) in Gulliver's Travails
The 2025 DOD budget is approximately $270 billion in 1995 dollars. Though this amount is essentially the same as in 1995, increased overseas commitments and high personnel costs strain the defense budget. Host nation support is unable to significantly defray DOD overseas expenditures because the US's driving motivation is to reduce the level of conflict around the world and thereby reduce the export of terrorism to America. Other nations realize this and are able to play on these fears to bargain for US financial concessions, such as aid packages, debt rescheduling, and other economic incentives.
Capabilities
Despite limited DOD budgets the military must be able to detect incipient crises and respond quickly once a situation is judged vital to US interests, acting before the crisis escalates unacceptably. The military must develop the equipment and skills to operate along the spectrum from peace operations to terrorist abatement to nuclear deterrence. Furthermore, maintaining a high operations tempo is a by-product of worldwide political instability that is exacerbated by the proliferation of nations.
The onset and monitoring of crises are primarily achieved through a combination of worldwide satellite coverage (both military and commercial networks) and human intelligence (HUMINT). Though DTeK is generally Constrained, significant US commercial and government investments in space allow the DOD to exploit the extant communications and sensor infrastructure. The large bandwidth, global coverage, and redundancy of the orbital systems effectively provide the military with worldwide intelligence coverage, on demand, all the time.
HUMINT often provides more warning time than satellite coverage, and also provides a human element regarding the motivations of the actors involved in precipitating a crisis. Furthermore, HUMINT may pinpoint the key actors responsible for the onset of a crisis, or provide details of planned actions. The combination of HUMINT and satellite-based intelligence provides the US government with the information leverage to forestall actions unfavorable to American interests. The US can generally secure cooperation from other countries for combined operations or gain acquiescence for unilateral US operations. The satellite systems then ensure that any necessary forces are kept cognizant of threats in the area of responsibility.
Once a crisis action area has been identified, assets must be transferred rapidly to the scene. In the majority of responses, light mobile ground forces are used to resolve the situation. In this alternate future, C-17 Globemasters and commercial air provide that rapid response.33 Rapid intervention sometimes allows forces to be withdrawn in days or weeks; thus long-term logistics support is usually not required, sparing the US considerable expense. In situations requiring operations enduring longer than three weeks, roll-on/roll-off (RO/ROs), container ships, and afloat prepositioned supplies are available to meet cargo requirements.34
Minimizing US forces' footprint is crucial so that personnel and equipment do not provide easy targets for groups using either conventional weapons or weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Whether intervening in a border dispute, supporting the legitimacy of a government through civil-military operations, or conducting counterterrorist actions, the military must remain prepared to operate in biological and chemical environments. That includes the detection and defusion of these WMD. American forces also deter and counter threats to cross the nuclear threshold, to include fielding a theater ballistic missile defense system where intelligence assets indicate a threat.35 To minimize threats to personnel, the military relies on survivable platforms with a rapid-response, precision strike capability, and on advanced unmanned aerial vehicles to perform missions from reconnaissance to air refueling.36
The variety of conflicts and missions presents a potential overcommitment dilemma for US forces. Overcommitment is particularly critical for the Marine Corps, the most frequently deployed service. The combination of good intelligence sources, a rapid deployment and redeployment capability, and precision strike capability address the equipment side of the equation. Personnel programs, such as weekly satellite video teleconferences, partially redress human issues such as extended family separations.
Implications
The proliferation of nations has yielded a Dispersed World Power Grid, a world wherein the US must rapidly detect, and react to, incipient crises before events deteriorate into a situation with negative consequences for America. As a result, DOD vitality depends on conducting coalition operations, adjusting to the operations tempo, and exploiting dual-use technologies.
Coalition operations dominate the military working environment. Consequently, professional military education emphasizes international affairs, diplomacy, and peacekeeping to the exclusion of nearly all else. Such skills are critical because most nations deny America basing rights. In fact, diplomatic passage of forces may threaten the success of some operational plans. Accordingly, combined task force commanders (CTFC) are sometimes dual-hatted as special envoys to provide them with the tools necessary to accomplish their missions. The actual mechanisms of military-to-military interactions also merit significant CTFC attention. The issue of intelligence crossflow is particularly volatile due to the fluid nature of coalitions; states may cooperate one day and compete the next.37 Interoperability issues are generally resolved through commercial communications systems, particularly space-based systems.38 To minimize conflicts between coalition partners, bilingualism is encouraged among US service members, and those service members are tracked using special identifiers; some are placed on a special leadership track.39
DOD has made adjustments to force structures and doctrine in order to sustain the high operations tempo with a limited budget. The tempo has adversely impacted training and readiness. In fact, adjustment factors to the "C" rating were developed that allow units to appear more ready than they really are, if the units have been deployed for more than 230 days in the past year.40 Meanwhile, the Marine Corps has increased in size because of the emphasis on light, rapid-reaction forces, while the Navy is about the same size as it was in 2010.41 Finally, the breadth of missions ensures reliance on reserves and civilian contractors, so CINCs were delegated greater authority to selectively call up Reserve and Guard forces.
Dual-use technologies are key to the success of the American military. Several policy decisions have contributed to the current ability of the DOD to maintain an adequate industrial base. First, military standards and specifications were eliminated. Second, multiyear procurements were adopted. Third, military science and technology relies on spin-offs of civilian R&D.42
Summary
In Gulliver's Travails the US attempts to act as a global policeman, but finds its power dissipated by the sheer number of actors. State- and nonstate-sponsored terrorists present one challenge, border conflicts another, and refugees a third. Limited defense budgets and the high operations tempo threaten the military's ability to continue successfully performing a variety of missions that deter activities counter to American interests. To date, evolutionary developments in dual-use technologies and adjustments in the concept of operations have provided a continued military edge, but this edge could evaporate quickly. In many ways, Gulliver's Travails is similar to the world of 1996.
Notes
1. A former head of the French intelligence service believes that the cold war was WW III, and that WW IV will be a terrorist war. Winn Schwartau, Information Warfare (New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 1994), 37.
2. Similar to the Iran-Iraq war, a 1917-type war fought in the 1980s using 1970s weapons. A textbook edited by Drs. Magyar and Danopoulos provides a useful summary of the Iran-Iraq conflict that ended in 1988, including explanations of how outside forces contributed to prolonging a war that dragged on for eight years. M. A. Shahriar Shirkhani and Constantine P. Danopoulos, "Iran-Iraq: Protracted Conflict, Prolonged War," in Dr. Karl P. Magyar et al., eds., Prolonged Wars (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, August 1994), 17-40.
3. At times the US must fear acts of revenge as a consequence of efforts to control terrorism in Gulliver’s Travails. This state of affairs mirrors that seen in Bosnia in January of 1996. At that time American troops were placed in a heightened state of alert, following reported Muslim threats in response to the sentencing of Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman by an American court. The sheikh was convicted of terrorism plot charges. Chris Hedges, "Fearing Attack, US Is Tightening Bosnia Security," The New York Times, 24 January 1996.
4. Henry Kissinger points out an "iron law of revolutions: the more extensive the eradication of existing authority, the more its successors must rely on naked power to establish themselves." Gulliver’s Travails displays evidence of that violence as groups war to claim their rights. Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Touchstone Books, Simon and Schuster, 1994), 655.
5. Karl P. Magyar asserts that most future conflicts will be economic in nature. Dr. Karl P. Magyar, faculty of Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Ala., interview with one of the authors, 9 April 1996.
6. Dr. Magyar notes that many of these fragmented states will enter a stage where they seek to form local or regional blocs in order to enhance their economic viability. Some of these efforts will be peaceful, and some will involve wars of consolidation or expansion.
7. Paul Kennedy believes that millions will migrate from the less-developed nations just to enjoy the crumbs that fall off the table in the developed countries. Furthermore, citizens of the developed nations will only constitute 10 percent of the world population, so must consider the repercussions of any actions taken against migration. Art Levine, "The Future is Bleak," Esquire, October 1993, 153; and Paul Kennedy, Preparing for the Twenty-First Century (New York: Random House, 1993), 46.
8. Jennings suggests that even Italy will break into two parts, though to the benefit of both north and south. Lane Jennings, "The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity," The Futurist, September-October 1995, 60; and Schwartau, 30. The Institute for National Strategic Studies suggests that the Middle East will continue to fragment as a result of the removal of cold war constraints. The same study notes that disorder and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa are "becoming more intractable," and the level of civil strife and disorder is accelerating. These assessments can be used to infer a worldwide trend that will not abate until the advent of a new polarization or some other stabilizing moment. Strategic Assessment 1995, Institute for National Strategic Studies (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995). Secretary of State Warren Christopher warned of a world of 5,000 states unless ethnic groups can learn to live together. The deputy prime minister of Singapore, George Yao, suggests that the future of China may lie in hundreds of "Singapore-like city-states." Alvin and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War (New York: Warner Books, 1993), 288.
9. Fissures in the Chinese body politic are being created "by uneven economic growth in various areas." The Chinese government is attempting to address these issues, but could conceivably fail, as is asserted in this world. Strategic Assessment 1995, 25. Dr. Magyar has expressed a dissenting opinion regarding the stability of China. He asserts that the majority of analysts believe China will not come apart. In an effort to avoid surprise, this world considers the challenges created by a China which unravels. Magyar, interview.
10. The "one China" philosophy originally was developed in 1949 after the Communists gained control of the mainland and Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuo Min Tang forces retreated to the island of Formosa (Taiwan). Patrick E. Tyler, "As China Threatens Taiwan, It Makes Sure US Listens," The New York Times, 24 January 1996; Eric R. Wolf, Peasant Wars of the Twentieth Century (New York: Harper & Row, 1975), 103-155.
11. Salt Lake City, Utah, has been chosen as the site of the 2002 Winter Olympics.
12. In the movie "Outbreak," the "Motaba" virus is discovered and recreated at the Dugway Proving Ground as a biological weapon. The plot of the movie has the virus escaping from Zaire and infecting a small town in California where hundreds of people die. The movie is based on the book Hot Zone, by Richard Preston, about a true incident that occurred in Reston, Virginia, in 1989.
13. Schwartau notes that the cold war left the US better prepared to defend overseas interests than interests within US borders. He suggests America may have to rethink current government policies to deter terrorism within the country. Schwartau, 31. Dr. Magyar believes that terrorist activity would probably continue to be an internal function relegated to the police. The Alternate Futures team felt, in line with Schwartau’s idea, that at the least some National Guard forces might receive specialized training. Magyar, interview.
14. The Kurds have long attempted to form their own state on lands currently ruled by Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary International Relations (New York: Macmillan College Publishing Co., 1994), 43.
15. Statistical projection of current populations using 1995 population growth rate in the countries noted. The World Factbook 95 (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 1995).
16. As the colonial empires of the European powers collapsed in the aftermath of WW II, these newly independent states were often formed using the old colonial boundaries. In some cases this resulted in one nation or tribe being "divided among several states, whereas in other instances, one nation or tribe found itself in a multinational state, in the minority, and powerless to influence governmental policy decision making. Thus, colonialism . . . carried with it the seeds of instability and uncertainty that plague so much of the world today." Papp, 41. Dr. Magyar has observed that these will be wars of consolidation, much larger than tribal wars which used to occur commonly in Africa. Magyar, interview.
17. In 1994, estimates of the world’s refugee population ranged from 20 million to 40 million. For the US, the problem often arises in deciding whether refugees are political refugees or economic refugees. Initially Haitian economic refugees were returned to their island, though they claimed to be political refugees. Cuban refugees were granted asylum because Fidel Castro and the communists control Cuba. Papp, 116-17, 259, 517.
18. Approximately 50,000 Rwandans died from cholera in refugee camps in Zaire before adequate water purification and medical units were established. Steve Harding, "Hope comes to Rwanda," Soldiers 49, no. 10 (October 1994): 13-17. See also: Michael J. Tooles, "Are War and Public Health Compatible," The Lancet, 8 May 1993, 1193-1196.
19. Appendix B provides trend data suggesting that the number of states in the world will increase to approximately 250 by the year 2025. Gulliver’s Travails postulates an increase that is only 19 percent greater than linear projections.
20. The Tofflers believe that unless the UN is dramatically restructured it will continue to play a smaller role in whatever future the world finds itself in. Toffler and Toffler, 250.
21. Patterned after The National Military Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995).
22. Strategic Assessment 1995 notes several instances in which government policies have proven either counterproductive or only partially effective. Strategic Assessment 1995, 198-205.
23. The launch date for the first US-sponsored space station is November 1997. That schedule might be delayed if Russia cannot provide the module for which they are responsible. "World in Brief: Space Station Push," The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 27 March 1996.
24. Space-borne ASATs present a greater technical challenge to successfully field than land-based ASATs. Objects in space are normally separated by large distances and "due to the energy requirements, satellites normally are not very maneuverable relative to their orbital path." Electronic message, Col Gerald Hasen et al., 2025 Technology Team, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, 9 April 1996. Some computer systems in satellites can be made resistant to certain nuclear effects by replacing silicon-based devices with ferroelectric materials. For instance, ferroelectric materials are resistant to electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. They are also nonvolatile, meaning their memory is not altered following a power loss. That nonvolatility is a major reason commercial firms are developing these materials. Such a development would be typical of the DOD’s reliance on dual-use technologies in many of the alternate futures. Kevin C. Smith, Response Surface Study of Fatigue in Ferroelectric Memory Devices (Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio: Air Force Institute of Technology, 1992).
25. From 1880 to 1987, the observed global average temperatures rose about 3 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2025, projections for further warming range from 1 degree to 5.5 degrees. If the greenhouse effect culminates in melting the ice caps, then 37 island states would literally disappear, simultaneously driving 72 million Chinese from their homes. Other nations would also be impacted. Papp, 556.
26. Marvin Cetron asserts that "the international treaty signed at Rio in 1992 was only the first step toward environmental cooperation on a global scale." Marvin Cetron, 74 Trends that will Affect America’s Future--and Yours--in the Year 2000 (Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society, 1994), 3.
27. At the end of the June 1992 Rio Earth Summit, over 150 states signed a treaty "calling for countries to reach agreement on climate improvement and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions." Papp, 558.
28. An example of biomass is the conversion of grain into alcohol for use as a fuel. William Hoagland, "Solar Energy," Scientific American, September 1995, 137.
29. Strategic Assessment 1995, 184.
30. DOD just completed its third and final round of base closures and realignments under current legislation. This last round affected 146 domestic military installations. Where possible, functions and operations were consolidated to reduce infrastructure. Another important consideration was operating costs. The Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard units at Chicago O’Hare International airport was closed because of high costs associated with heating facilities and plowing runways. Other facilities were closed or realigned because of similar concerns about operating costs associated with energy or environmental mitigation. Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, 1995 Report to the President (Arlington, Va.: The Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, 1995), ix, 94-95.
31. From 1985-1993 the US economy grew at a rate of 2.3 percent annually. Gulliver’s Travails experiences lower rates due to the Constrained DTeK. Appendix B provides some sensitivity analysis for various growth rates. Statistical Abstract of the United States 1995 (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995).
32. One group believes such a shake-out is already in progress, inspired by the "adverse structural characteristics of defense contracting." Summarized, the bureaucratic and regulatory process minimizes profits, particularly with declining production runs in areas that benefit only when economies of scale are rewarded. Strategic Assessment 1995, 203.
33. C-17s provide lift for the outsize cargo that will not fit on commercial carriers, and commercial aircraft transport carry the majority of passengers, bulk, and oversize equipment. Bulk cargo can be palletized or containerized; oversized cargo is generally not palletized and can fit on most commercial aircraft. Some oversize equipment requires C-5 or C-17 cargo bay capabilities. Cargo that must be moved by sea lift is usually either too large or too heavy to move by air, or doing so would be inefficient. Commercial aircraft are financially compensated via the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) program. In Gulliver’s Travails this compensation includes federally provided insurance coverage in the event an aircraft is damaged or destroyed. More information on air and sea lift can be found in the following four texts: Col John A. Warden et al., Concepts in Airpower for the Campaign Planner (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1993); Lt Col John L. Cirafici, Airhead Operations (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1995); Air Vice Marshal R. A. Mason, Air Power: An Overview of Roles (McLean, Va.: Pergamon-Brassey’s International Defense Publishers, 1987); and Lt Col Donald E. Ryan, The Airship’s Potential for Intertheater and Intratheater Airlift (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1993).
34. RO/ROs are considered fast sea lift and during Desert Storm generally reached the Kuwaiti theater of operations within three weeks from departing the CONUS. Container ships are similar to the breakbulk cargo ships of WW II, except that containerization has decreased port time from as much as 60 percent of a voyage, to less than 10 percent. There are no prepositioned overseas materiel configured for unit sets (POMCUS) in this world. Until 2008 these supplies were located in Europe, in support of NATO contingencies, but POMCUS was removed as part of the fallout of NATO’s inability to contain the Turko-Kurdish conflict that started in 2004. Lt Col Ryan, in his thesis for the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, proposes the use of dirigibles as an alternate lift asset that is significantly faster than sea lift, yet carries more cargo than a C-5 for a fraction of the airframe manufacturing cost. Dirigibles might be a very useful, and practical, tool in this alternate future. For more information on dirigibles and sea lift consult Ryan.
35. While commander in chief of US Space Command in the mid-1990s, Gen Kutyna provided testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee indicating an ever-increasing threat from third world tactical ballistic missile systems. Given the 30 years until 2025, that problem is only likely to intensify. Maj James P. Marshall, "Near Real-Time Intelligence of the Tactical Battlefield," Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College), 234.
36. The first UAVs or remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) were designed in the 1930s when the Royal Air Force conducted experiments with radio-controlled drones. During WW II over 14,000 of these RPVs were delivered to the US Army and Navy. In 1987, Lockheed was developing the Aquila for the US Army to carry a "high-resolution TV camera, a laser for target ranging and designation and multimode video tracker." The entire package was to weigh less than 70 pounds, have an ultra-low radar cross section, and have an endurance of three hours at a range of 30 miles. Such a package is easily carried to the war zone; most of the baggage consists of equipment vans for the controllers. UAVs have several advantages: reduced manpower requirements, less vulnerability when airborne, reduced aircrew exposure, lower training requirements, significantly lower fuel requirements. To date they suffer from restricted payloads, vulnerabilities to jamming, and inflexibility in the face of the unknown. However, is quite likely that deficiencies will be overcome in the years of technical development preceding 2025. Mason, 84-88. Also, the New World Vistas report by the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board is highly optimistic regarding the future development of unmanned or "uninhabited" aerospace vehicles. See New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century, Summary Volume (Washington, D.C.: Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, 1995), 34-36.
37. The distribution of power within a coalition shifts between members over time, particularly as objectives approach completion and assessments are made in light of a changed situation. As a result, "your partner today could be your enemy tomorrow." Vicki J. Rast and Maj Bruce R. Sturk, "Coalitions: The Challenge of Effective Command and Control in Support of the Air Campaign," in Maj Glenn Cobb, ed., Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1995), 170.
38. Increased reliance on space-based systems is in line with prognostications by many. Toffler, 158.
39. Desert Storm bilingual personnel were vital liaisons, aiding mutual understanding and acting as translators for intelligence information that flowed between the coalition partners. Rast, 173.
40. This is a 1996 problem, identified in Joint Pub 1 amongst other publications, magnified by the greater number of actors in 2025. Joint Warfare of the US Armed Forces (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, 1991), 3.
41. Some suggest that the services will evolve towards an "interservice centralized military command." Schwartau, 29.
42. Some analysts believe those three steps are just a few that should be taken by the year 2000. These steps seem plausible by 2025 in Gulliver’s Travails, given the reliance on commercial derivatives to support most military operations. Strategic Assessment 1995, 203; and Toffler, 167. Adm William A Owens noted in 1995 that the center of technical acceleration generally lies in the commercial, nondefense sector. Adm William A. Owens, "The Emerging System of Systems," in Maj Glenn Cob, ed., Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1995), 205-209.
documents here
Gulliver's Travails is a world of rampant nationalism, state- and nonstate-sponsored terrorism, and fluid coalitions.1 Most US citizens consider their nation to be the world's policeman . . . fireman, physician, social worker, financier, mailman, and bartender. It is much like being a traffic cop on an incendiary New York City Friday afternoon when the traffic lights stop working. Just when everyone foresees the illusory weekend escape from the rat race, they instead must compete to relax. A zero-sum calculus pervades much of the globe, and random firefights occur in a world where everyone is armed and many are envious.
This is an age in which agrarian and industrial civilizations often dominate the stage with unruly behavior, threatening to topple more "advanced" states when "primitive" conflicts create problems that spill across borders. Though the reasons for the conflicts may appear primitive, the weapons used are often modern.2 Furthermore, newly anointed leaders are clever enough to realize refugees pose a threat to the stability of their regime, be it an autocracy, a people's republic, or an economic enclave. Those in power assume, usually correctly, that the displaced will seek to return to their homes, or at the least to gain revenge.3 Consequently, to ensure their new state's security, governments seek some means for controlling the passions of those who might oppose them. In some cases, internal repression and external terrorism are the mechanisms chosen.4
Traditionally the United States could ignore some of these activities, but as the world has gotten smaller, the problems of terrorism are no longer confined overseas. Small states or groups may seek to either spur or deter US action in pursuit of their own agendas. The problem is there are too many actors, all clamoring for attention, frequently in direct opposition to one another. Addressing these claimants' issues is vital to the US because groups that are neither controlled nor appeased may export terrorism to America.
Nationalism lurks everywhere, usually asserting itself along ethnic, economic, religious, cultural, or racial schisms.5 In many areas, a man who is not one's brother is one's enemy. States which secede from within existing borders are themselves subject to civil wars, and states propagate as ever more groups seek self-determination. Territory is important in this world, because the emergent groups need land to form states. Because land matters, border disputes continue long after these tenuous states initially form.6 The violent, nationalistic conflicts concomitantly displace millions of people. Refugees stream across borders seeking food, shelter, and security, but their presence often sparks reactionary nationalistic movements in the "invaded" country.7
America, though without peer, finds its forces dispersed around the world, trying to answer all the alarms. As shown in figure 3-1, the American World View is Global; the United States is heavily involved worldwide in order to hold threats at arms length. The World Power Grid is characterized as Dispersed. New actors are constantly appearing, alliances rapidly shift, and small actors can produce disproportionate effects. DTeK is Constrained because technological changes are occurring at an evolutionary rate, and not everyone benefits equally. The US government has not emphasized the funding of basic research and development (R&D), relying instead on commercial developments. This R&D strategy is repeated around the world, so the United States has maintained a military edge in many dual-use critical technologies, particularly those related to operations in space.
Figure 3-1. Strategic Planning Space for Gulliver's Travails
Plausible History
Gulliver's Travails is a world experiencing an explosion in the number of territories claiming statehood, as depicted in figure 3-2. The late twentieth century dismantling of the Soviet Union inaugurated a trend, as various groups sought to assert their national identity. States such as China and many African states continued to break apart, sometimes generating "micronations" that lacked the population or resources to defend their borders.8 In 2006, China fragmented along economic cleavages that had developed as industrialization and commercialization created distinctly different regions of financial development.9 Though Taiwan, Shanghai, and the other advanced Chinese states continue to espouse a "one China" philosophy, the current reality is that these regions cooperate where possible and compete when necessary.10
Figure 3-2. Plausible History for Gulliver's Travails
The constant formation of new states generated two primary threats. The first threat is state- and nonstate-sponsored terrorism. States use terror to control internal dissent and to influence nations with whom they cannot otherwise directly compete. Nonstate actors use terrorism to attack the legitimacy of governments they disagree with and to discourage other groups from supporting policies unfavorable to the terrorists.
The first large-scale terrorist incident on American soil was the biological attack launched at the 2002 Olympics in Utah, resulting in over a million American casualties, including a quarter-million dead.11 Though a link to the Dugway Proving Ground was originally suspected, foreign terrorists were later proven responsible.12 This incident sparked civil demands that authorities use all appropriate national instruments to deter and prevent terrorist acts within US borders. One step, taken in 2019, was to dedicate the training of specific National Guard units to antiterrorism efforts inside US borders. 13 Threats of terrorism, at home and abroad, continue to drive national security initiatives.
The second major threat is ethnic- and nationalistic-inspired border disputes such as the Turko-Kurdish problem which flared up in 2004 (see map at fig. 3-3). 14 Power continued to disperse in the world when NATO proved ineffective in resolving the Turko-Kurdish conflict. NATO had sufficient military resources, but the alliance was unable to muster the collective will to contain the conflict before it spilled across borders into Iraq, Iran, Syria, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, putting over 340 million people at risk.15
As the conflict continued without foreign intervention, chemical and biological weapons were used on the battlefield. Undeterred by world opinion, the use of these weapons threatened to become standard practice by 2011. At this point, a loosely linked United States-led coalition, including Russia, stepped in to announce that further use of these weapons would be met by severe reprisals. Though the conflict continued, no further chemical or biological incidents occurred, as the combatants proved reluctant to test the resolve of the coalition. The coalition was able to concentrate on containment until the war-weary states signed an armistice in 2012. However, a critical threshold had been passed, and in 2025 the actual or threatened use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is standard in many conflicts. Only the nuclear threshold has not been crossed, due to the relatively slow spread of nuclear weapons technology and the apparent unwillingness of combatants to use nuclear devices. Some terrorist organizations have claimed to possess primitive nuclear devices, though they have not detonated one.
The latest round of African wars began in 2022, continuing to redraw the map lines created during the colonial era.16 As a consequence of these and similar conflicts, the resources of noncombatant nations around the world, particularly those states along the Mediterranean, are strained by mass migrations of refugees.17 Along with the problem of providing food and shelter for these refugees, the refugee camp conditions often spur the spread of diseases.18
The end result of all these economic restructurings, civil wars, wars of national liberation, wars of ethnic identification, and scenes of general xenophobic disorder is an unstable world, with threats from increasing numbers of actors in all quarters. Reflecting the growth in the number of actors, UN membership stands at 297.19
The Nature of Actors
The fates of three groups dominate the stage in Gulliver's Travails: terrorists, both state and nonstate; international organizations; and the United States. Though the European states and Japan remain key economic players in the world, domestic interests and constrained DTeK have hindered their economic growth. Both areas look to the United States for leadership in constraining terrorists, addressing worldwide refugee flows, and ensuring equitable access to resources. Both Russia and China have fractured along internal schisms and are not currently major global players.
Terrorism increases worldwide as relatively weak states seek to assert sovereignty, particularly with respect to the policies of the most visible world actor, the United States. Meanwhile, nonstate terrorists also commit heinous acts in the name of establishing their legitimacy, or attacking the legitimacy of a government whose policies they disagree with. Many suspect some of these international groups exist solely as extortion rings, accepting blackmail or ransom payments in return for releasing hostages to fortune.
International organizations have experienced mixed successes and failures in the unstable international environment. UN conflict resolution mechanisms and resources are saturated by the influx of new members, many of whom squabble with each other. The UN's credibility declines further when it cannot constrain state-sponsored or antistate terrorism.20
Temporary coalitions have become the order of the day as states operate from crisis to crisis. Some international organizations, such as the Red Cross, remain on the scene, often providing vital resources to coalitions combating famine and disease. These groups, however, are loath to cooperate with the United States on humanitarian missions lest they be accused of complicity with the Americans. The risk of becoming terrorist targets outweighs the value of access to American logistics.
Anxious to reduce the sources of local, regional, and international turmoil, many nations and states look to the United States for help in restoring stability and combating both state and nonstate terrorists, who have occasionally threatened to use WMD. The continuing terrorist threat guarantees domestic support for the US decision to assume a worldwide leadership role in trying to deal with global problems. Ever-increasing political, economic, and military resources are expended trying to control interstate conflicts, combat terrorism, and conduct other military operations.
The Nature of International Politics
The United States is, in effect, not a superpower because it cannot dictate its will to an increasingly uncooperative world. Relative to any single nation, however, the United States is an economic and military giant. US membership in alliances has been highly sought, particularly after this country successfully brokered an armistice in the Turko-Kurdish Wars. Some coalitions have formed to oppose US interests, but these were usually unstable due to their limited shared aims.
The Nature of US National Security Strategy
The strategic challenge in this world is to defend against WMD-equipped terrorists while maintaining a high operations tempo in other mission areas. Much of the high operations tempo is caused by numerous overseas involvements responding to constant border disputes brought on by rampant nationalism. These border disputes create massive refugee flows and generate taxing humanitarian and peace enforcement operations.
Therefore, the two principal dangers the military must address are regional instability and the transnational danger of terrorism.21 As a consequence, the primary national security objective is promoting stability, thereby supporting American partners and deterring aggressors who might export terrorism to America. To support this objective a strategy evolved for rapidly projecting power and civil-military operations capabilities, in combination or separately, as necessary. Projection is the mechanism of choice because it is dangerous to maintain concentrations of forces overseas, and most states will not accept permanent US military bases. Antigovernment and foreign terrorists have attacked governments that made basing concessions to the US.
The Nature of Humanity
An uneasiness regarding outsiders, akin to xenophobia, is a characteristic trait of neighborhoods in Gulliver's Travails. So is a fear of gathering in large groups, as many remember the terrorist attack at the 2002 Olympics. The threat of terrorist activity causes groups to trust only those they have known for years, preferably decades.
As a paradoxical consequence, American military members are both admired and mistrusted. They are admired because they enhance stability and safety, but they are mistrusted because permanent changes of station and temporary duty assignments prevent military members from forming close links in the communities where they serve. As a result of the general mistrust of strangers, families have become more important in this world.
The Nature of Technology
In the world of Gulliver's Travails, technology has grown at an evolutionary rate, perhaps due in part to the regulatory structure of government programs around the world. Others argue that disruptions in the world body politic have hindered DTeK, as governments concentrate on terrorist and border threats rather than supporting basic R&D. Evolutionary growth is the most important aspect of technology in Gulliver's Travails, but important developments have begun in at least one area, the exploitation of space.
In America, government funding of R&D, particularly basic research, generally lagged as a result of allocating funds to export military power in a quest to sustain internal security. However, America was able to maintain its lead in certain technologies because of the Constrained nature of DTeK, although that lead is eroding.
Elsewhere, other nations recognized that an indigenous computer and information industry was crucial to a state's long-term vitality, though the policies implemented were often counterproductive.22 For instance, states placed high tariffs on computer imports in attempts to protect nascent industries, but this resulted in reduced access to advances in the state of the art. Another regulatory miscue was seen in some locations where information was taxed to provide revenues, unintentionally stifling initiatives to develop the new industries so desperately sought. Attempts to contain terrorism led many nations to establish controls on the export of dual-use technologies, unintentionally acting as an additional brake on technology development. One readily evident consequence of poorly managed policies and economic competition between states was an information superhighway frequently overloaded with information, debilitated by computer viruses, and slowed by competing architectures.
Developments in space did not labor under similar quantities of regulation. The increased importance of transmitting information led the commercial sector to invest heavily in space communications. (In return for releasing bandwidth to the military, commercial firms now are financially compensated and are granted relief from antimonopoly laws to allow participation in government-sponsored consortiums to improve satellite defensive systems.) Some projects, however, required resources greater than venture capitalists were willing to risk. For example, four international space stations were developed under the aegis of the US government and placed in orbit by 2015.23 Groups that cooperated in this space infrastructure project included both traditionally friendly nations, such as the United Kingdom, and multinational corporations seeking competitive opportunities in zero-g technologies. Spin-off technologies from this effort continue to enhance US military capabilities.
The American military edge garnered by investments in space has not gone unnoticed by potential adversaries. Some states have deployed antisatellite systems (ASAT) to counter the force-multiplier effect of satellite coverage, and in response the United States has developed some satellite defensive systems. However, there remains little defense against inexpensive, nuclear-tipped ASATs.24
The Nature of the Environment
The United States has led efforts to coordinate actions to mitigate global warming and environmental degradation.25 Efforts to mitigate environmental damage are an issue the advanced states attempt to address in new states and inside their own borders. A general concern regarding the ecosphere allows the environment in Gulliver's Travails to be characterized as "green."26
Coordinated actions include providing aid to newly industrializing countries, usually in the form of technological know-how. This aid is considered mutually beneficial, providing new states with infrastructure investments and advanced nations with a more stable international political structure. All nations are presumed to benefit from efforts to minimize stress on the environment, particularly the attempt to control the trend in global warming.27
Many advanced countries used taxes to keep the price of fossil fuels artificially high, thereby restraining internal energy consumption. Environmentally friendly government policies created a market for alternate forms of energy including solar, wind, geothermal, oceanic, and biomass.28 Countries with large standing militaries used these forces as testbeds for many alternate energy programs, in addition to curtailing some training activities and closing some training ranges.29 In the United States, the military invested heavily in alternate forms of energy, including solar heat for buildings and hydrogen fuel for aerospace planes. In addition, the military closed energy-inefficient bases and consolidated some geographically proximate facilities.30
The Nature of the Defense Budget
During three decades of economic growth averaging 1.8 percent,31 the budget for the Department of Defense (DOD) sustained a slight decrease in constant year 1995 dollars (see fig. 3-4). To maintain readiness in the face of this decrease, DOD cut support for R&D and modernization programs. As a result, the military industrial base eroded and second- and third-tier contractors disappeared, while major suppliers consolidated horizontally.32 Had it not been for dual-use, off-the-shelf commercial technologies, the US military would already have had to make deeper cuts in readiness, force structure, and modernization programs. These tradeoff decisions were delayed after 2015 when DOD budgets began to increase at a rate approaching 2 percent real growth per year. This funding reflected the desire of the body politic to secure American borders by operating abroad. In 2025, the DOD budget represents just over 2.3 percent of gross domestic product.
Figure 3-4. DOD Budget (Constant FY95 $B) in Gulliver's Travails
The 2025 DOD budget is approximately $270 billion in 1995 dollars. Though this amount is essentially the same as in 1995, increased overseas commitments and high personnel costs strain the defense budget. Host nation support is unable to significantly defray DOD overseas expenditures because the US's driving motivation is to reduce the level of conflict around the world and thereby reduce the export of terrorism to America. Other nations realize this and are able to play on these fears to bargain for US financial concessions, such as aid packages, debt rescheduling, and other economic incentives.
Capabilities
Despite limited DOD budgets the military must be able to detect incipient crises and respond quickly once a situation is judged vital to US interests, acting before the crisis escalates unacceptably. The military must develop the equipment and skills to operate along the spectrum from peace operations to terrorist abatement to nuclear deterrence. Furthermore, maintaining a high operations tempo is a by-product of worldwide political instability that is exacerbated by the proliferation of nations.
The onset and monitoring of crises are primarily achieved through a combination of worldwide satellite coverage (both military and commercial networks) and human intelligence (HUMINT). Though DTeK is generally Constrained, significant US commercial and government investments in space allow the DOD to exploit the extant communications and sensor infrastructure. The large bandwidth, global coverage, and redundancy of the orbital systems effectively provide the military with worldwide intelligence coverage, on demand, all the time.
HUMINT often provides more warning time than satellite coverage, and also provides a human element regarding the motivations of the actors involved in precipitating a crisis. Furthermore, HUMINT may pinpoint the key actors responsible for the onset of a crisis, or provide details of planned actions. The combination of HUMINT and satellite-based intelligence provides the US government with the information leverage to forestall actions unfavorable to American interests. The US can generally secure cooperation from other countries for combined operations or gain acquiescence for unilateral US operations. The satellite systems then ensure that any necessary forces are kept cognizant of threats in the area of responsibility.
Once a crisis action area has been identified, assets must be transferred rapidly to the scene. In the majority of responses, light mobile ground forces are used to resolve the situation. In this alternate future, C-17 Globemasters and commercial air provide that rapid response.33 Rapid intervention sometimes allows forces to be withdrawn in days or weeks; thus long-term logistics support is usually not required, sparing the US considerable expense. In situations requiring operations enduring longer than three weeks, roll-on/roll-off (RO/ROs), container ships, and afloat prepositioned supplies are available to meet cargo requirements.34
Minimizing US forces' footprint is crucial so that personnel and equipment do not provide easy targets for groups using either conventional weapons or weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Whether intervening in a border dispute, supporting the legitimacy of a government through civil-military operations, or conducting counterterrorist actions, the military must remain prepared to operate in biological and chemical environments. That includes the detection and defusion of these WMD. American forces also deter and counter threats to cross the nuclear threshold, to include fielding a theater ballistic missile defense system where intelligence assets indicate a threat.35 To minimize threats to personnel, the military relies on survivable platforms with a rapid-response, precision strike capability, and on advanced unmanned aerial vehicles to perform missions from reconnaissance to air refueling.36
The variety of conflicts and missions presents a potential overcommitment dilemma for US forces. Overcommitment is particularly critical for the Marine Corps, the most frequently deployed service. The combination of good intelligence sources, a rapid deployment and redeployment capability, and precision strike capability address the equipment side of the equation. Personnel programs, such as weekly satellite video teleconferences, partially redress human issues such as extended family separations.
Implications
The proliferation of nations has yielded a Dispersed World Power Grid, a world wherein the US must rapidly detect, and react to, incipient crises before events deteriorate into a situation with negative consequences for America. As a result, DOD vitality depends on conducting coalition operations, adjusting to the operations tempo, and exploiting dual-use technologies.
Coalition operations dominate the military working environment. Consequently, professional military education emphasizes international affairs, diplomacy, and peacekeeping to the exclusion of nearly all else. Such skills are critical because most nations deny America basing rights. In fact, diplomatic passage of forces may threaten the success of some operational plans. Accordingly, combined task force commanders (CTFC) are sometimes dual-hatted as special envoys to provide them with the tools necessary to accomplish their missions. The actual mechanisms of military-to-military interactions also merit significant CTFC attention. The issue of intelligence crossflow is particularly volatile due to the fluid nature of coalitions; states may cooperate one day and compete the next.37 Interoperability issues are generally resolved through commercial communications systems, particularly space-based systems.38 To minimize conflicts between coalition partners, bilingualism is encouraged among US service members, and those service members are tracked using special identifiers; some are placed on a special leadership track.39
DOD has made adjustments to force structures and doctrine in order to sustain the high operations tempo with a limited budget. The tempo has adversely impacted training and readiness. In fact, adjustment factors to the "C" rating were developed that allow units to appear more ready than they really are, if the units have been deployed for more than 230 days in the past year.40 Meanwhile, the Marine Corps has increased in size because of the emphasis on light, rapid-reaction forces, while the Navy is about the same size as it was in 2010.41 Finally, the breadth of missions ensures reliance on reserves and civilian contractors, so CINCs were delegated greater authority to selectively call up Reserve and Guard forces.
Dual-use technologies are key to the success of the American military. Several policy decisions have contributed to the current ability of the DOD to maintain an adequate industrial base. First, military standards and specifications were eliminated. Second, multiyear procurements were adopted. Third, military science and technology relies on spin-offs of civilian R&D.42
Summary
In Gulliver's Travails the US attempts to act as a global policeman, but finds its power dissipated by the sheer number of actors. State- and nonstate-sponsored terrorists present one challenge, border conflicts another, and refugees a third. Limited defense budgets and the high operations tempo threaten the military's ability to continue successfully performing a variety of missions that deter activities counter to American interests. To date, evolutionary developments in dual-use technologies and adjustments in the concept of operations have provided a continued military edge, but this edge could evaporate quickly. In many ways, Gulliver's Travails is similar to the world of 1996.
Notes
1. A former head of the French intelligence service believes that the cold war was WW III, and that WW IV will be a terrorist war. Winn Schwartau, Information Warfare (New York: Thunder’s Mouth Press, 1994), 37.
2. Similar to the Iran-Iraq war, a 1917-type war fought in the 1980s using 1970s weapons. A textbook edited by Drs. Magyar and Danopoulos provides a useful summary of the Iran-Iraq conflict that ended in 1988, including explanations of how outside forces contributed to prolonging a war that dragged on for eight years. M. A. Shahriar Shirkhani and Constantine P. Danopoulos, "Iran-Iraq: Protracted Conflict, Prolonged War," in Dr. Karl P. Magyar et al., eds., Prolonged Wars (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, August 1994), 17-40.
3. At times the US must fear acts of revenge as a consequence of efforts to control terrorism in Gulliver’s Travails. This state of affairs mirrors that seen in Bosnia in January of 1996. At that time American troops were placed in a heightened state of alert, following reported Muslim threats in response to the sentencing of Sheik Omar Abdel Rahman by an American court. The sheikh was convicted of terrorism plot charges. Chris Hedges, "Fearing Attack, US Is Tightening Bosnia Security," The New York Times, 24 January 1996.
4. Henry Kissinger points out an "iron law of revolutions: the more extensive the eradication of existing authority, the more its successors must rely on naked power to establish themselves." Gulliver’s Travails displays evidence of that violence as groups war to claim their rights. Henry Kissinger, Diplomacy (New York: Touchstone Books, Simon and Schuster, 1994), 655.
5. Karl P. Magyar asserts that most future conflicts will be economic in nature. Dr. Karl P. Magyar, faculty of Air Command and Staff College, Air University, Maxwell AFB, Ala., interview with one of the authors, 9 April 1996.
6. Dr. Magyar notes that many of these fragmented states will enter a stage where they seek to form local or regional blocs in order to enhance their economic viability. Some of these efforts will be peaceful, and some will involve wars of consolidation or expansion.
7. Paul Kennedy believes that millions will migrate from the less-developed nations just to enjoy the crumbs that fall off the table in the developed countries. Furthermore, citizens of the developed nations will only constitute 10 percent of the world population, so must consider the repercussions of any actions taken against migration. Art Levine, "The Future is Bleak," Esquire, October 1993, 153; and Paul Kennedy, Preparing for the Twenty-First Century (New York: Random House, 1993), 46.
8. Jennings suggests that even Italy will break into two parts, though to the benefit of both north and south. Lane Jennings, "The World in 2020: Power, Culture, and Prosperity," The Futurist, September-October 1995, 60; and Schwartau, 30. The Institute for National Strategic Studies suggests that the Middle East will continue to fragment as a result of the removal of cold war constraints. The same study notes that disorder and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa are "becoming more intractable," and the level of civil strife and disorder is accelerating. These assessments can be used to infer a worldwide trend that will not abate until the advent of a new polarization or some other stabilizing moment. Strategic Assessment 1995, Institute for National Strategic Studies (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995). Secretary of State Warren Christopher warned of a world of 5,000 states unless ethnic groups can learn to live together. The deputy prime minister of Singapore, George Yao, suggests that the future of China may lie in hundreds of "Singapore-like city-states." Alvin and Heidi Toffler, War and Anti-War (New York: Warner Books, 1993), 288.
9. Fissures in the Chinese body politic are being created "by uneven economic growth in various areas." The Chinese government is attempting to address these issues, but could conceivably fail, as is asserted in this world. Strategic Assessment 1995, 25. Dr. Magyar has expressed a dissenting opinion regarding the stability of China. He asserts that the majority of analysts believe China will not come apart. In an effort to avoid surprise, this world considers the challenges created by a China which unravels. Magyar, interview.
10. The "one China" philosophy originally was developed in 1949 after the Communists gained control of the mainland and Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuo Min Tang forces retreated to the island of Formosa (Taiwan). Patrick E. Tyler, "As China Threatens Taiwan, It Makes Sure US Listens," The New York Times, 24 January 1996; Eric R. Wolf, Peasant Wars of the Twentieth Century (New York: Harper & Row, 1975), 103-155.
11. Salt Lake City, Utah, has been chosen as the site of the 2002 Winter Olympics.
12. In the movie "Outbreak," the "Motaba" virus is discovered and recreated at the Dugway Proving Ground as a biological weapon. The plot of the movie has the virus escaping from Zaire and infecting a small town in California where hundreds of people die. The movie is based on the book Hot Zone, by Richard Preston, about a true incident that occurred in Reston, Virginia, in 1989.
13. Schwartau notes that the cold war left the US better prepared to defend overseas interests than interests within US borders. He suggests America may have to rethink current government policies to deter terrorism within the country. Schwartau, 31. Dr. Magyar believes that terrorist activity would probably continue to be an internal function relegated to the police. The Alternate Futures team felt, in line with Schwartau’s idea, that at the least some National Guard forces might receive specialized training. Magyar, interview.
14. The Kurds have long attempted to form their own state on lands currently ruled by Iraq, Iran, and Turkey. Daniel S. Papp, Contemporary International Relations (New York: Macmillan College Publishing Co., 1994), 43.
15. Statistical projection of current populations using 1995 population growth rate in the countries noted. The World Factbook 95 (Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, 1995).
16. As the colonial empires of the European powers collapsed in the aftermath of WW II, these newly independent states were often formed using the old colonial boundaries. In some cases this resulted in one nation or tribe being "divided among several states, whereas in other instances, one nation or tribe found itself in a multinational state, in the minority, and powerless to influence governmental policy decision making. Thus, colonialism . . . carried with it the seeds of instability and uncertainty that plague so much of the world today." Papp, 41. Dr. Magyar has observed that these will be wars of consolidation, much larger than tribal wars which used to occur commonly in Africa. Magyar, interview.
17. In 1994, estimates of the world’s refugee population ranged from 20 million to 40 million. For the US, the problem often arises in deciding whether refugees are political refugees or economic refugees. Initially Haitian economic refugees were returned to their island, though they claimed to be political refugees. Cuban refugees were granted asylum because Fidel Castro and the communists control Cuba. Papp, 116-17, 259, 517.
18. Approximately 50,000 Rwandans died from cholera in refugee camps in Zaire before adequate water purification and medical units were established. Steve Harding, "Hope comes to Rwanda," Soldiers 49, no. 10 (October 1994): 13-17. See also: Michael J. Tooles, "Are War and Public Health Compatible," The Lancet, 8 May 1993, 1193-1196.
19. Appendix B provides trend data suggesting that the number of states in the world will increase to approximately 250 by the year 2025. Gulliver’s Travails postulates an increase that is only 19 percent greater than linear projections.
20. The Tofflers believe that unless the UN is dramatically restructured it will continue to play a smaller role in whatever future the world finds itself in. Toffler and Toffler, 250.
21. Patterned after The National Military Strategy of the United States of America (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995).
22. Strategic Assessment 1995 notes several instances in which government policies have proven either counterproductive or only partially effective. Strategic Assessment 1995, 198-205.
23. The launch date for the first US-sponsored space station is November 1997. That schedule might be delayed if Russia cannot provide the module for which they are responsible. "World in Brief: Space Station Push," The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 27 March 1996.
24. Space-borne ASATs present a greater technical challenge to successfully field than land-based ASATs. Objects in space are normally separated by large distances and "due to the energy requirements, satellites normally are not very maneuverable relative to their orbital path." Electronic message, Col Gerald Hasen et al., 2025 Technology Team, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio, 9 April 1996. Some computer systems in satellites can be made resistant to certain nuclear effects by replacing silicon-based devices with ferroelectric materials. For instance, ferroelectric materials are resistant to electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects. They are also nonvolatile, meaning their memory is not altered following a power loss. That nonvolatility is a major reason commercial firms are developing these materials. Such a development would be typical of the DOD’s reliance on dual-use technologies in many of the alternate futures. Kevin C. Smith, Response Surface Study of Fatigue in Ferroelectric Memory Devices (Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio: Air Force Institute of Technology, 1992).
25. From 1880 to 1987, the observed global average temperatures rose about 3 degrees Fahrenheit. By 2025, projections for further warming range from 1 degree to 5.5 degrees. If the greenhouse effect culminates in melting the ice caps, then 37 island states would literally disappear, simultaneously driving 72 million Chinese from their homes. Other nations would also be impacted. Papp, 556.
26. Marvin Cetron asserts that "the international treaty signed at Rio in 1992 was only the first step toward environmental cooperation on a global scale." Marvin Cetron, 74 Trends that will Affect America’s Future--and Yours--in the Year 2000 (Bethesda, Md.: World Future Society, 1994), 3.
27. At the end of the June 1992 Rio Earth Summit, over 150 states signed a treaty "calling for countries to reach agreement on climate improvement and the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions." Papp, 558.
28. An example of biomass is the conversion of grain into alcohol for use as a fuel. William Hoagland, "Solar Energy," Scientific American, September 1995, 137.
29. Strategic Assessment 1995, 184.
30. DOD just completed its third and final round of base closures and realignments under current legislation. This last round affected 146 domestic military installations. Where possible, functions and operations were consolidated to reduce infrastructure. Another important consideration was operating costs. The Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard units at Chicago O’Hare International airport was closed because of high costs associated with heating facilities and plowing runways. Other facilities were closed or realigned because of similar concerns about operating costs associated with energy or environmental mitigation. Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, 1995 Report to the President (Arlington, Va.: The Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission, 1995), ix, 94-95.
31. From 1985-1993 the US economy grew at a rate of 2.3 percent annually. Gulliver’s Travails experiences lower rates due to the Constrained DTeK. Appendix B provides some sensitivity analysis for various growth rates. Statistical Abstract of the United States 1995 (Washington, D.C.: US Government Printing Office, 1995).
32. One group believes such a shake-out is already in progress, inspired by the "adverse structural characteristics of defense contracting." Summarized, the bureaucratic and regulatory process minimizes profits, particularly with declining production runs in areas that benefit only when economies of scale are rewarded. Strategic Assessment 1995, 203.
33. C-17s provide lift for the outsize cargo that will not fit on commercial carriers, and commercial aircraft transport carry the majority of passengers, bulk, and oversize equipment. Bulk cargo can be palletized or containerized; oversized cargo is generally not palletized and can fit on most commercial aircraft. Some oversize equipment requires C-5 or C-17 cargo bay capabilities. Cargo that must be moved by sea lift is usually either too large or too heavy to move by air, or doing so would be inefficient. Commercial aircraft are financially compensated via the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) program. In Gulliver’s Travails this compensation includes federally provided insurance coverage in the event an aircraft is damaged or destroyed. More information on air and sea lift can be found in the following four texts: Col John A. Warden et al., Concepts in Airpower for the Campaign Planner (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1993); Lt Col John L. Cirafici, Airhead Operations (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1995); Air Vice Marshal R. A. Mason, Air Power: An Overview of Roles (McLean, Va.: Pergamon-Brassey’s International Defense Publishers, 1987); and Lt Col Donald E. Ryan, The Airship’s Potential for Intertheater and Intratheater Airlift (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University Press, 1993).
34. RO/ROs are considered fast sea lift and during Desert Storm generally reached the Kuwaiti theater of operations within three weeks from departing the CONUS. Container ships are similar to the breakbulk cargo ships of WW II, except that containerization has decreased port time from as much as 60 percent of a voyage, to less than 10 percent. There are no prepositioned overseas materiel configured for unit sets (POMCUS) in this world. Until 2008 these supplies were located in Europe, in support of NATO contingencies, but POMCUS was removed as part of the fallout of NATO’s inability to contain the Turko-Kurdish conflict that started in 2004. Lt Col Ryan, in his thesis for the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, proposes the use of dirigibles as an alternate lift asset that is significantly faster than sea lift, yet carries more cargo than a C-5 for a fraction of the airframe manufacturing cost. Dirigibles might be a very useful, and practical, tool in this alternate future. For more information on dirigibles and sea lift consult Ryan.
35. While commander in chief of US Space Command in the mid-1990s, Gen Kutyna provided testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee indicating an ever-increasing threat from third world tactical ballistic missile systems. Given the 30 years until 2025, that problem is only likely to intensify. Maj James P. Marshall, "Near Real-Time Intelligence of the Tactical Battlefield," Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College), 234.
36. The first UAVs or remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) were designed in the 1930s when the Royal Air Force conducted experiments with radio-controlled drones. During WW II over 14,000 of these RPVs were delivered to the US Army and Navy. In 1987, Lockheed was developing the Aquila for the US Army to carry a "high-resolution TV camera, a laser for target ranging and designation and multimode video tracker." The entire package was to weigh less than 70 pounds, have an ultra-low radar cross section, and have an endurance of three hours at a range of 30 miles. Such a package is easily carried to the war zone; most of the baggage consists of equipment vans for the controllers. UAVs have several advantages: reduced manpower requirements, less vulnerability when airborne, reduced aircrew exposure, lower training requirements, significantly lower fuel requirements. To date they suffer from restricted payloads, vulnerabilities to jamming, and inflexibility in the face of the unknown. However, is quite likely that deficiencies will be overcome in the years of technical development preceding 2025. Mason, 84-88. Also, the New World Vistas report by the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board is highly optimistic regarding the future development of unmanned or "uninhabited" aerospace vehicles. See New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the 21st Century, Summary Volume (Washington, D.C.: Air Force Scientific Advisory Board, 1995), 34-36.
37. The distribution of power within a coalition shifts between members over time, particularly as objectives approach completion and assessments are made in light of a changed situation. As a result, "your partner today could be your enemy tomorrow." Vicki J. Rast and Maj Bruce R. Sturk, "Coalitions: The Challenge of Effective Command and Control in Support of the Air Campaign," in Maj Glenn Cobb, ed., Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1995), 170.
38. Increased reliance on space-based systems is in line with prognostications by many. Toffler, 158.
39. Desert Storm bilingual personnel were vital liaisons, aiding mutual understanding and acting as translators for intelligence information that flowed between the coalition partners. Rast, 173.
40. This is a 1996 problem, identified in Joint Pub 1 amongst other publications, magnified by the greater number of actors in 2025. Joint Warfare of the US Armed Forces (Washington, D.C.: National Defense University Press, 1991), 3.
41. Some suggest that the services will evolve towards an "interservice centralized military command." Schwartau, 29.
42. Some analysts believe those three steps are just a few that should be taken by the year 2000. These steps seem plausible by 2025 in Gulliver’s Travails, given the reliance on commercial derivatives to support most military operations. Strategic Assessment 1995, 203; and Toffler, 167. Adm William A Owens noted in 1995 that the center of technical acceleration generally lies in the commercial, nondefense sector. Adm William A. Owens, "The Emerging System of Systems," in Maj Glenn Cob, ed., Theater Air Campaign Studies (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air Command and Staff College, 1995), 205-209.
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